8.9M people were living in Quebec in 2023, an increase of 5.8% since 2018.
Quebec's demographic weight is 22.1% in Canada, compared to 22.6% five years ago.
The population of Quebec, with a median age of 42.6 years, is aging more than Canada as a whole (40.6 years).
Proportionately, in 2023 Quebec had more people aged 65 and over (20.8% vs. 18.9%) and slightly fewer young people under 20 years old (20.8% vs. 21.0%) than the Canadian average.
In 2032, one in four people (25.3%) will be 65 or older, representing an increase of 4.5 percentage points in 10 years, according to the Institut de la statistique du Québec's A2022 reference scenario.
The dependency ratio increased significantly since 2018, from 65.7% to 71.4% in 2023. There are more than 71 people under 20 years old and 65 years of age or older per 100 people in the working-age population (aged 20 to 64) who are able to support them.
Nearly 47% of Quebecers (2021 census) reported having knowledge of both official languages. Just over 61% of those who are bilingual are concentrated in Montréal's census metropolitan area.
Indigenous people account for 2.5% of Quebecers (2021 census), which is 50% less than the rest of Canada (5.0%). The pandemic affected employment among Indigenous and non-Indigenous people in similar proportions, but the Indigenous population had a slower recovery.
Permanent immigration has remained stable since 2015, with an annual average of around 50,000 immigrants due to the levels set by the Government of Quebec. Temporary immigration reached a historic peak in 2023 with 528,000 non-permanent residents in the fourth quarter, which is an increase of 46% in one year. The increase is primarily due to the growth in the number of asylum claimants in the region, work permit holders, and their family members.
In 2023, the number of employed immigrants in Quebec reached 852,000, which is a decrease of 0.9% compared to the peak in 2022 (859,000). Among them, 143,400 are temporary, which is an increase of 29% compared to 2022. By comparison, employment increased by 2.3% for the non-immigrant population.
LABOUR MARKET CONDITIONS
Overview of 2023…
Significant job growth (+2.3%)
The number of unemployed people increased (+6.3%)
The employment rate rose from 61.5% to 62.1%
The unemployment rate increased slightly from 4.3% to 4.5%
Employment trends in Quebec
The labour market continued to grow, despite the downturn observed in the second half of the year. The addition of 103,300 jobs helped it continue its post-pandemic recovery and reach a new high of 4.5 million jobs.
After having reached 8.9% in 2020, Quebec's unemployment rate in 2023 remained low at 4.5%, which was lower than the 2019 pre-pandemic rate (5.1%) and close to its historic low.
The labour force grew in line with the increase in the population size as a whole.
After declining with the pandemic, the participation rate returned to the 2019 levels for all age groups.
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS IN QUEBEC
Quebec's 2023 Economic Drivers
Recession in the second half of the year
Reduced household consumption
Historically high inflation and interest rates
2023 overview…
In 2023, Quebec's economic growth slowed to nearly zero (0.1%) after a 2.8% growth rate in 2022 following the post-pandemic recovery. Quebec has been in a technical recession since the second quarter of the year.
In 2023, Quebec's inflation rate was 4.5%, which was more than double its historic level. Following the sharp rise in prices and lower household net savings, consumption faltered after the first quarter.
Interest rates rose sharply from 0.25% at the beginning of 2022 to 5% in mid-2023 as the Bank of Canada attempted to slow inflation. These increases affected household financial decisions, leading to impacts on the real estate market and a decline in housing starts in particular.
Regional issues
Managing human resources in the context of a labour shortage and an economic downturn to combine downsizing staff, attracting the best talent, retaining qualified staff, and increasing productivity.
Aligning growing temporary immigration with the labour market needs in the context of an aging population.
Ensuring that Quebec businesses are competitive, particularly SMEs, despite economic uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and climate threats.
Main risks for Quebec's economy in 2024
A continued recession in the context of historically low unemployment.
Ongoing inflationary pressures.
Geopolitical and economic uncertainties related to the economic slowdown in China and continued global trade tensions.
A possible increase in the number of job vacancies with the recovery and difficulties in filling them to meet the needs of the economy in a context of an ongoing labour shortage.
INDUSTRY TRENDS
Overall, employment increased in 2023, but the production of goods (1.1%) experienced more modest job growth compared to the services sector (2.7%).
The industries that were the most heavily affected by the pandemic continued to recover, while significant increases in employment were recorded for the second consecutive year in accommodation and food services (+23,500 in 2022, +33,700 in 2023) and retail trade (+4,700 in 2022, +11,100 in 2023). However, there have not been enough job gains yet to return to 2019 levels.
Notable job growth was also recorded in the information, culture and recreation sector (+27,600), construction (+18,500) and other services (+17,500).
In contrast, some industries were more affected by the economic slowdown, such as wholesale trade (-10,900) and finance, insurance, real estate and leasing (-3,800).
REGIONAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS
Most of Quebec's regions experienced growth in 2023, particularly Greater Montréal and its suburbs, where 73% of job creation was observed. The combined regions of the Laurentides (+28,200), Montréal (+22,900), Montérégie (+16,200) and Laval (+11,400) created 78,700 new jobs, and only Lanaudière saw employment decline.
On the other hand, the Abitibi-Témiscamingue region had the highest number of regional job losses (-1,200) proportionately. Lanaudière (-3,200) and Chaudière-Appalaches (-2,900) experienced the biggest drop in job numbers, though proportionally it was more modest and followed enormous gains in 2022 (+19,000 and +15,100 respectively).
Most regions have returned to their 2019 pre-pandemic employment levels or are close to doing so, with the exception of Estrie, Côte-Nord and Nord-du-Québec, and Abitibi-Témiscamingue, which experienced the largest shortfalls.
